SWODY3
SPC AC 150721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD AROUND THE SWRN SIDE OF THE
LARGE ERN NOAM VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE
ERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES -- AND NOSE SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
-- AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH 18/12Z.
WARM-SECTOR CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EVIDENT N OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK -- I.E. IN A ZONE FROM THE OZARKS
EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...PRECLUDING ANY INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/15/2011
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