DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150953
SWOD48
SPC AC 150952

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA...ATTENDANT
DEEP SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MEAGER IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONGLY
FORCED BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING
SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT SLY LLJ...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL VA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL AREA FOR MONDAY
(DAY 4).

DAYS 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. A LARGE AREA
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN HALF THE U.S. DAY
5-6 WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT POSSIBLE DAYS 7-8...MAINTAINING
OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2013

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