DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150702
SWODY2
SPC AC 150700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER JET DEVELOPS SWD ALONG THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PRECEDE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AND WILL EJECT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.

AT THE SFC A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
STRETCH FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD THROUGH NM
INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AND LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. AS
THIS OCCURS THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD AHEAD OF
A STRONGER POLAR FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

THE RIDGE OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLY
NEAR SFC WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION
WHERE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD. BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID MS
VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE WRN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ STRENGTHENS...BUT WHEN THE NEAR SFC LAYER
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE FROM 500-1000
J/KG MAY DEVELOP. A FEW SUB-SEVERE EARLY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE. IN WAKE OF
EARLY STORMS ...MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC HEATING
BENEATH AN EWD ADVECTING BUT MODEST EML...SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS DURING THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...BUT WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY SHOULD IT
BEGIN TO BECOME EVIDENT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN WARM
SECTOR.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2013

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