DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150550
SWODY1
SPC AC 150548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...WITHIN A BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BIFURCATE LATE FRI
INTO EARLY SAT...WITH PRIMARY VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...WHILE SRN EXTENSION PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LLJ INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODEST
NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
DCVA...ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING THE GREAT BASIN...AMIDST COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
STRENGTHENING LOW-/MIDLEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ONLY YIELD AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AT BEST...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY /E.G 50-60 KT/
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
MODEST...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW SLIVER OF
BUOYANCY PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE MAY HINDERED
BY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK CINH.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. RICHER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
ADVECT INLAND ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY
SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM /-10 TO -15 C/...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..ROGERS/DARROW.. 11/15/2013

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