DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AN AMPLIFYING/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING POLAR JET
WILL GENERALLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND/OR
LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SATURDAY NIGHT
TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT.

INITIALLY...ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE RELATIVELY MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
RISK SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE EXACT TIMING/QUALITY OF THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A KEY QUESTION...BUT AT LEAST SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK. THAT
SAID...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE BY THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO. SHOULD THIS BE THE
CASE...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...OZARKS VICINITY...
FARTHER SOUTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
MO/NORTHERN AR AND THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. STEADILY
INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
GIVEN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY
REEVALUATED FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AND A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..GUYER.. 11/15/2013

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