SWODY2
SPC AC 051724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL DEAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EWD...
MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING DAY 2. MEANWHILE...
UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST LATE DAY 2 INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN CA AND NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE..A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING E/SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING DAY 1 IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FURTHER E/SEWD ON FRIDAY SPREADING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE TN VALLEY TO AR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK/SRN STREAM LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE WRN/NWRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN GULF
SURFACE HIGH. A PRE-EXISTING MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE COAST. DESPITE RATHER WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN/CENTRAL LA AND SWRN MS SUGGEST
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM SRN AR TO PARTS OF
SRN TN AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THESE AREAS...BUT THE WARM MIDLEVEL
LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 01/05/2012
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