SWODY2
SPC AC 301656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS INTO
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TODAY/FRIDAY AND COME INTO PHASE
WITH AN EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY.
...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ATTENDANT WARM/MOIST SECTOR
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...OFF MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
/AND FL/. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS REMAIN PREVALENT /HIGHLIGHTED
BY 60+ KT FLOW AROUND 850 MB/...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROBABLE
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY MANIFESTED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE BRUNT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT/ATTENDANT
WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN OFF/NEAR THE COAST...SUCH THAT PROSPECTS FOR
AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/CORRESPONDING SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND ARE
LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN. SHOULD EVEN SCANT SURFACE BASED
BUOYANCY BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY...SOME LOW THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE /PERHAPS AS A FINE LINE/ AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELIHOOD OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT
PROSPECTS FOR SUCH WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY REEVALUATED IN SHORTER TIME
SCALE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 09/30/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment