Saturday, November 17, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170944
SWOD48
SPC AC 170943

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS -- SPECIFICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF -- IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6...WITH A
LARGE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPAND TO
COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED -- AS A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH
MOVES SWD OUT OF CANADA ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION -- SPREADING SLOWLY EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS OF TX DAY 4 /TUE.
NOV. 20/ TO FL DAYS 6-7 -- ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AREALLY...DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. THUS WILL NOT
INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA ATTM.

.GOSS.. 11/17/2007

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