SWODY1
SPC AC 171253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
W TX UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL TX THIS EVENING
AND E TX EARLY SUNDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT IS GRADUALLY ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT WLY
FLOW OVER THE SERN U.S. SFC REFLECTION OF TROUGH LIKELY WILL REMAIN
WEAK. DIFFUSE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY FILL OVER WRN/NRN TX...WHILE A WEAK
WAVE REFORMS NEWD FROM DEEP S TX TODAY...TO THE NWRN GULF EARLY
SUNDAY.
..SRN/CNTRL TX CSTL PLN...
SATELLITE PW AND SFC DATA SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE ALONG
THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX GULF CST THIS MORNING. THIS FEED SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPR SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF TX.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT MID LVLS
AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTN ALONG THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS TO BECOME POTENTIALLY BUOYANT AS LOW WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
LOW LVL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AS UPR SYSTEM ASSUMES AN
INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILT. BUT 30-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ON E SIDE OF TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG
THE LWR AND MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN INTO SE TX. OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY...FROM ABOUT
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...IN ADDITION
TO HEAVY RAIN...BEFORE MOST MOVE OFF THE CST LATER TONIGHT.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/17/2007
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