SWODY1
SPC AC 171555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2007
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NATION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY QUIESCENT WEATHER PATTERN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF TX/LA WHERE SCT TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP /MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST/
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY
POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
..TX COASTAL PLAINS...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WEST TX...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH/EAST TX AND PORTIONS OF
LA THROUGH TONIGHT. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM BRO AND CRP INDICATED A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION /CENTERED AROUND 700 MB/ TO
PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS SO FAR THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HILL COUNTY INDICATES MID
LEVEL COOLING WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTING WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THUS TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...
INSTABILITY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD COVER /PER VIS SAT
IMAGERY/...LOW LEVEL HEATING SHOULD BE RETARDED SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE GREATER INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW /OVER 40 KTS/ SUGGESTS ISOLATED SVR
WIND/HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.
.CROSBIE/HALES.. 11/17/2007
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