SWODY1
SPC AC 271224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM N FL/SE GA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MS. THE MS
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD FROM ERN ND/MN. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK LOW INVOF THE FL BIG BEND WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
A BROAD MOIST WARM SECTOR IS PRESENT FROM FL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F ARE COMMON. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR THUS FAR AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN AND RELATED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS FROM JUST OFFSHORE...AND A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL FAVOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT...AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE
OBSERVED UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
THE LLJ EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA/PA WHEN THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD WRN PA. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /ESPECIALLY ON
THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/...AS WELL AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES/CLUSTERS. DAMAGING GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/27/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment