SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271253
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-271430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...ERN GA...EXTREME NRN FL...ERN
PANHANDLE OF FL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271253Z - 271430Z
COMBINATION OF GRADUAL INCREASES IN BOTH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN UNCONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON
HOURS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOWS OVER NRN GA AND OVER S-CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE INVOF AAF. FRONT CONNECTING THOSE LOWS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AS COLD FRONT...WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO PIVOT SEWD ACROSS NERN MS TOWARD NRN AL. LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING DENSITY HAS INCREASED IN PRIMARY
BAND OF LIFT FROM APALACHEE BAY NNEWD ACROSS ERN GA...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NE OVER SC. PREDOMINANT STORM MODE
MAY REMAIN LINEAR...GIVEN VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND MEAN WIND VECTORS EACH ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO
ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOW/LEWP FEATURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AS
WELL AS FOR ROTATION IN ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF PRIMARY BAND. MODIFIED JAX RAOB INDICATES ONLY WEAK
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING IS NECESSARY
TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WHERE THETAE HAD BEEN
RELATIVELY LOW...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. MEANWHILE...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED
BENEATH GRADIENT RESPONSE ALOFT TO APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE
100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD PERSIST.
..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31508315 32078211 32508177 33688061 34178048 34077909
33847859 33467910 33137917 32997939 32478029 32518051
32378039 32048087 31578113 31028143 30498145 29758250
29068300 29288310 29428321 29448330 29518340 29678340
29768362 29938367 30098399 30038428 29898432 29578502
29678516 30558422 31508315
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