MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1899

ACUS11 KWNS 271703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271703
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-271830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271703Z - 271830Z

SFC WARM FRONT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN VA/MD/DE WITH
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE VALUES ARE
MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION...A SMALL POCKET OF MODEST SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES -ON THE ORDER OF 6 C/KM - HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS APPEARS TO BE INSTRUMENTAL IN RECENT SHALLOW SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW OF
THESE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES DESPITE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW CLOUD TOPS. IF BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO THREAT WITH SHALLOW SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40387726 40117542 39437429 38577492 39167746 39897792
40387726

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