SWODY1
SPC AC 271955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS -- ACROSS BOTH THE NRN GA/WRN
CAROLINAS REGION WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND VICINITY WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.
ONE CHANGE OF NOTE WAS IMPLEMENTED ACROSS SERN GA...WHERE SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE BAND OF STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES
SHIFTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE.
..GOSS.. 09/27/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA
OF THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.
...SC/NC COAST SHORT-TERM...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SETUP ACROSS GA/SC/NC
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE COAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATEST
SHORT-TERM RISK OF SEVERE IS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OF SC...AND FAR EASTERN NC. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
...CENTRAL NC INTO DELMARVA...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC NEAR THE
REMNANT FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THIS
REGION AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A POCKET OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO PARTS OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
NJ/DE/MD WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.
...NORTHERN GA...
FINALLY...THE POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY OVER
AL/GA...COUPLED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVER GA...MAY RESULT IN
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
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