SWOD48
SPC AC 211004
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
..DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE DAY 4-8 RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5 THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST BY DAY 7. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE DAY 5
INTO DAY 6...SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS APPEAR LOW. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 6 TIME FRAME IS DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A SMALL UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR TO ADVANCE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6 AS A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND FORECAST WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET SUGGEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEVERE
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
.DIAL.. 02/21/2008
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