SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211247
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69...
VALID 211247Z - 211345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 69 CONTINUES.
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF SERN LA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING WWD
ACROSS SWRN LA AS THE MARINE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING.
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATED THE MARINE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO SLY AT BUOY 42035...LOCATED 25 ESE GLS. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EWD FROM FAR NWRN GULF TO NEAR OR THROUGH FAR SRN
TERREBONNE/LAFOURCHE PARISHES AND THEN ESEWD TO THE S OF BVE AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/NERN GULF. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1200 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 69 AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /50+ KT/ SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH LCH/LIX 12Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...STORMS FARTHER S OVER
SRN TERREBONNE/LAFOURCHE PARISHES ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND THUS HAVE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
.PETERS.. 02/21/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...HGX...
29239431 30129440 30429347 30329091 30178954 30398881
30308836 29778832 28578882 28548964 28799136
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