MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2085

ACUS11 KWNS 170337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170336
OKZ000-TXZ000-170530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170336Z - 170530Z

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND NEWD NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IS RETURNING NWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET
BENEATH 7.5 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN TX. THIS PROCESS
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER NRN PARTS
OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND EXPAND
NEWD TOWARD WRN OK OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ROTATION...WHICH ALONG
WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR HAIL.
A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND ISSUANCE
OF A WW WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

.DIAL.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34109927 33130048 33000255 34220270 35860214 36100026
35299906

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