SWODY3
SPC AC 310724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO THURSDAY...GLANCING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND REACHING QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WHILE A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
..GREAT LAKES AREA...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
PLAINS. THE STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN POST
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 25 TO
35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MODEST WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BUT MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...BUT AT
THIS TIME THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS TO NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..NERN U.S....
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 60S
DEWPOINTS THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO THE NERN STATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.
HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. A FEW STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NRN
NY AND MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT TIME OF
DAY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY.
.DIAL.. 07/31/2007
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