SWOD48
SPC AC 310839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION...
..THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES FRIDAY
AUGUST 03...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
UPPER TROUGH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND THE NERN STATES FRIDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY.
FARTHER WEST OVER THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG WITH MORE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN. GFS...UKMET
AND MRF DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. BY SATURDAY AUGUST
04 WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTS THIS
FEATURE EWD BY SUNDAY AUG 05. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION SATURDAY AUG 04 THROUGH MONDAY AUG 06. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A SEVERE THREAT
AREA.
.DIAL.. 07/31/2007
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