DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
AND BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
SD...WRN NEB AND ERN WY.

AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH SD AND NEB BENEATH 6.5 TO 7
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THERMAL AXIS. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER
JET...LEAVING WEAK SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WITH TRACK OF UPPER TROUGH BEING NORTH OF U.S. BORDER...THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
POST FRONTAL REGION. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER NRN MN WHERE 30-40 KT WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
MID LEVEL JET.

AS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURFACE FRONT WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND
FASTER MOVING OVER NRN MN WHERE STRONGER WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST.

..WY...

STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WLY WINDS
ALOFT...OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST DUE
TO WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW WITH 10 TO 15 KT AT 500 MB. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH 500 MB MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

.DIAL.. 07/31/2007

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