SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312158
AZZ000-010100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN AZ.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 312158Z - 010100Z
RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIEST AMONG
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF AZ. MERGING STORMS AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THREAT LOCALLY.
SPORADIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS PIMA COUNTY MAY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND GROW/MOVE NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN
PINAL...MARICOPA AND ERN YUMA COUNTIES THROUGH NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP WWD FROM PORTIONS
GILA/YAVAPAI/SRN COCONINO COUNTIES...WITH MOUNTAINS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS BEING PRIMARY FOCI FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. VERY
RICH MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH MODIFIED
20Z PHX RAOB...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA INDICATING 1.75-2 INCH
PW...PRE-STORM MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...AND LIGHT ELY FLOW THROUGH
MUD-UPPER LEVELS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN ABOUT AS FAR AS
THEY WILL AND REMAIN HIGH -- MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS
MARICOPA/YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES. SOMEWHAT WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL...BUT
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT HAZARD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.
.EDWARDS.. 07/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
32131369 33231373 34121389 35211331 35391286 34971219
34421225 34381155 33731082 33061102 32251161 32001307
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