SWODY2
SPC AC 011704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AND SRN
TX TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN FAR EAST CENTRAL TX IN THE MORNING... WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND A WARM
FRONT LOCATED IN FAR SRN LA. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING SWD AND
CLOSING OFF...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SEWD INTO LA.
...ERN TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA...
VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG EAST AND NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN/CONVECTION TO BE
OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN COOLED AIR
SHOULD STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 02/12Z. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ACROSS FAR ERN TX/LA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.
...FAR SERN LA AND MS COAST...
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SERN LA
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE MS COAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS EWD...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A BAND/LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NWRN GULF
AND FAR SRN LA. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE
LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND SPEEDS AT
ONLY 10 KT FROM 850-650 MB. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.
..IMY.. 11/01/2010
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