SWOD48
SPC AC 010829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY
AHEAD OF EJECTING GULF TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS FORECAST OVER THE ERN
GOM AT 05/00Z WITH A BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50KT OVER
THE BODY OF FL. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE SHEAR ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. PRIOR TO THIS...IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE GFS
FAILS TO ALLOW MORE THAN ~500 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY4. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.
..DARROW.. 11/01/2010
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