SWODY1
SPC AC 011235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX...
...ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AND SW LA. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ARKLATEX SWD INTO ERN AND S CENTRAL
TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH
THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
WHICH WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE MLCAPE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.
..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/01/2010
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