SWODY1
SPC AC 010540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/WRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...
...S THROUGH E TX INTO WRN LA...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK SWWD TO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z TODAY. THIS WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EWD/SEWD TODAY REACHING E TX AND ARCING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
MOIST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A LEAD IMPULSE AND INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER E TX/WRN LA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATTENDANT
DIGGING TROUGH. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN...ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF E TX/SWRN LA TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
BACKING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO TX WILL RESULT IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LINEAR WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TX COAST.
..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/01/2010
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