SWODY2
SPC AC 010528
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION REGARDING THE
EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER TX...SPECIFICALLY THEIR 500MB POSITION AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
MIDDLE TX COAST NEAR PSX. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER
THOUGHTS REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EAST TX WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ONLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS -- NOT SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE JUST OFF THE LA
COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC WAVE...SWD
ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL GULF.
..DARROW.. 11/01/2010
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