SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020319
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-020445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...
VALID 020319Z - 020445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738
CONTINUES.
THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 738 IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WW AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REGIME...AND AN
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO ADVANCE INTO/
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...AS INSTABILITY
ONLY SLOWLY WANES.
..KERR.. 11/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30489564 31129462 32209413 33059415 33789392 33829292
33149173 32429195 31019285 29959423 29789538 30489564
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