Monday, November 1, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2031

ACUS11 KWNS 012324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012324
TXZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012324Z - 020100Z

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED. BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

THE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING REMAINS
A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN /AS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY SO FAR...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND PERHAPS RADIATIONAL COOLING ATOP THE DEEP
SURFACE BASED MOIST LAYER...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING BETWEEN NOW AND
02-03Z.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEAK...STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 11/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29909673 30869557 31509487 31689422 31289368 30999377
29789499 29399563 29169674 29619701 29909673

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