SWOD48
SPC AC 270949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE LARGE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. TROUGH IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND EVENTUALLY OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF DAY 6 /TUE. 12-2/.
THROUGH DAY 6...THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS
INDICATED DAY 4 /SUN. 11-30/...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF THE SERN
CONUS ON THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN
U.S. COAST -- IF NOT OFFSHORE...THUS PLACING THE WARM SECTOR
GENERALLY OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE ONLY THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
OVER FL AND POSSIBLY SERN GA/AND THE EXTREME COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS. IF AN AMPLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDEED RESIDES
ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SEEMS AT LEAST POSSIBLE...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ATTM HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
THAT AMPLE ONSHORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
LATER IN THE PERIOD -- BEGINNING LATE DAY 6...CYCLOGENESIS IS
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE LOW AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH DAY 7. ATTM THOUGH...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING SUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR...AND THUS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST.
..GOSS.. 11/27/2008
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