SWODY1
SPC AC 271247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY. MORE
ACTIVE NRN BRANCH WILL MAINTAIN THE POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WITH
AN ASSOCD TROUGH SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A SRN STREAM
UPR LOW OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENE AND DEAMPLIFY WITHIN THE
DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLNS. AT THE SFC...A
REINFORCING CDFNT FOLLOWING THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE PLNS/MIDWEST THIS AFTN...REACHING MID-ATLC
CST SWWD INTO THE DEEP S AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...DESERT SW...
SMALL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN CA UPR LOW HAS BEEN
ENHANCING BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE LWR CO VLY AND AZ
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM INTO
CNTRL/NERN AZ THROUGH MID-DAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY THRIVE ALONG THE S AND W
EDGES OF THE WARM CONVEYOR OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH PSBL HAIL. OTHERWISE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH COLD
POCKET ALOFT MAY AUGMENT DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING.
WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPR SYSTEM AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY DECREASE TSTM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTN.
...UPR TX CST/SW LA...
A BRIEF AND WEAK PULSE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TIED TO GLANCING
INFLUENCES OF THE NRN STREAM WERE LIKELY CULPRITS TO WDLY SCTD
SHOWERS ALONG THE UPR TX CST/SRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
UPR RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SRN CA UPR LOW WILL LIMIT SUPPORT
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. BUT...AS
LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LVL WARM
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN INCREASING RISKS FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY W TO THE UPR TX CST.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE RELEGATED TO VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...OR MORE LIKELY...ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CDFNT ARRIVES. SRN EDGES OF ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 11/27/2008
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