SWODY1
SPC AC 280023
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...NEAR THE -20C 500 MB COLD CORE OF THE
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND UPPER SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH INTO A CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING AS FAR
SOUTH AS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 28/06Z.
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE REGION AND RED RIVER
VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITHIN BROADER SCALE RIDGING...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS ALREADY
SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. AND...WEAK LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC COOLING ABOVE A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
...PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM LOW DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF CAPPING LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGING.
..KERR.. 11/28/2008
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