SWODY1
SPC AC 271609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET NOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN
CA. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...EACH OF WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MOIST CONVECTION EARLY TODAY. WITH LARGE AREA OF ASCENT
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EWD ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES. AS POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER
THE SWRN STATES TONIGHT...DEEP ASCENT ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MOST LIKELY AREA OF STRONGER STORMS...AND PERHAPS SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN MORE INTENSE CORES...IS EXPECTED NEARER
THE MID LEVEL COLD POCKET DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. MORNING SATELLITE
SUGGESTS MODEST TO STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL AZ
AND SRN CA INDICATING MARGINAL SBCAPE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/27/2008
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