DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120730
SWODY3
SPC AC 120728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A NARROW WRN RIDGE BEING IMPINGED BY
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN CA ON MON. MOST PROMINENT
IMPULSE E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN PARTS OF AZ/NM AT
12Z/MON...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING SEWD TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF TX
BY EARLY TUE.

...FAR WRN TX...SRN NM...
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE D2 PERIOD...WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 12Z/MON...RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BY MON AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON
THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THE BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY RELEGATED
INTO CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR ANY SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
DESPITE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR DAMPENING DURING D1 OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OZARKS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY VARIED WITH SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
FIELDS BY MON. DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED IN THE D2 OUTLOOK REGARDING THE
OVERLAP OF STRONGER FLOW FIELDS AND GREATER BUOYANCY IN THE
ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE...APPEAR TO BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH MON. STILL...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST
COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR IN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LOW-END
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012

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