DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121622
SWODY1
SPC AC 121620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND
SOUTHERN MS...

...LA/MS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
TX. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER LA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. DEWPOINTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BROKEN CLOUDS IN THIS REGION ARE
ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL HEATING...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL CAP.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN
MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES. THE MAIN RISK
HOWEVER WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. REFER TO MCD NUMBER
794 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

...CO/NM...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES. THE THREAT
SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER DARK.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/12/2012

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