DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX BEGINNING TO EJECT
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY EARLY TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LEE
OF THE SRN ROCKIES. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO SWRN KS...FAR WRN
OK AND THE TX BIG COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS...REACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY BY TUE
MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OUTSIDE OF THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...AS MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES AND SOURCES OF LIFT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER THAN NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE EJECTION OF THE
INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS
TROUGH. CONSISTENCY IS SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE /LIKELY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION ON D1/
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
PREDOMINATELY LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WITH ADVECTION OF THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST MOISTURE PLUME NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL PROBABLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENTIRELY RELEGATED NW OF A STOUT EML
PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF KS SWD...CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW EXTENT OF THE PBL OVER MUCH OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. TSTM
INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN NERN CO...THEN DEVELOPING E/SEWD
INTO NWRN KS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD HIGHLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT INTO KS/ AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BOTH
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE...PROSPECTS FOR MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS
SHOULD BE ENHANCED AND MOST MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. STILL...THE NAM INDICATES
VERY STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
THIS BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THUS...MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL
ON TSTMS ACTUALLY BEING ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN
KS/WRN OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OR TWO PERHAPS
EMANATING NEWD WITHIN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TYPE
ENVIRONMENT.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013

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