DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070835
SWOD48
SPC AC 070834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO D5-6 FROM THE
MID/LOWER-MS VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE S ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT BEYOND D4. DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN D2-3
OVER MODELS HANDLING OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WITH PRECEDING DAYS FEATURING ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS THAT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT
ADVECTION OF A WRN GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...SETUP SHOULD
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH EWD AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS DOWNSTREAM OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INVOF
CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ON D4. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY OCCURS WITH THE
HANDLING/TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE AND ESPECIALLY WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.