DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN MO...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX ACROSS OK INTO SRN
KS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS WCNTRL OK WITH
NEAR 60 F POSSIBLE IN SRN KS. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS WHERE SOME OF THE MODELS INITIATE
CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS NCNTRL KS AND SWD INTO NW OK BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FROM WICHITA KS WWD TO DODGE CITY KS
AND SWD TO GAGE OK GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
COINCIDES WITH 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL GENERATION...WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN KS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN PERSIST
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO
DEVELOP.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LACK OF A MID-LEVEL JET. ALSO...THE CAPPING INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD EXTENT. FOR THIS
REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL SOUTH OF I-40.

...ERN KS/WRN-CNTRL MO...
WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
EXTENDING EWD INTO AR AND MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS NE OK...ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO ERN
KS/WRN MO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON AT KANSAS CITY KS AND SPRINGFIELD MO
GENERALLY SHOW MUCAPE VALUES PEAKING AT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. MODE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME OF THE WEAKER CELLS
REMAINING MULTICELLULAR. CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WITH ACCESS
TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS AND CONTAIN A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/07/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.