WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 83

WWUS20 KWNS 071918
SEL3
SPC WW 071918
KSZ000-MOZ000-080200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS NEAR ICT APPEAR TO BE
EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SW MO.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON

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