DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING POLAR JET/SPEED MAX TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. CORRESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND A SLOW MOVING AND/OR
SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
TRENDS MORE MERIDIONAL WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
POLAR JET APPROACHING THE REGION. PERSISTENT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL AID THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK/SOUTHWEST KS TO THE EAST OF
A DRYLINE...WITH A VERY QUICK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURGE /BUT
MORE MODEST/ LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
KS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS THROUGH
MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...THE
STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INCLUDING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT
/A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY/ PUTS INTO THE QUESTION THE
LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX. THAT SAID...AT
LEAST A FEW/RELATIVELY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PLAUSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP/MATURE ESPECIALLY
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WOULD HIGHLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
CORRESPONDING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE ROUGHLY
WSW-ENE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH...ANY DRYLINE/WARM SECTOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD OTHERWISE NOCTURNALLY DIMINISH AS INHIBITION/CAPPING
BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 04/07/2013

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