SWODY3
SPC AC 190731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SWD
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
THE NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...A CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AHEAD OF THE DIGGING WRN TROUGH...AS
THE ERN NOAM VORTEX MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN WY/ERN
CO VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING WRN
TROUGH. A STRONGLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED S OF A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS/OK AND ON INTO THE
GUST COAST STATES.
...ERN WY/SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE...
WHILE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN
CAPPED...ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND E OF
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN WY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN KS/THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. WHILE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO MT/ND...A NARROW ZONE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
STRONGER CELLS IS FORECAST INVOF ERN WY.
ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS...STRONGLY-VEERING FLOW -- FROM ESELY AT LOW LEVELS TO MORE
SLY ALOFT -- WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE STORMS MAY DRIFT EWD OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2008
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