SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190859
FLZ000-191100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190859Z - 191100Z
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL MAY POSE A
MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL FL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASING WAA /NOTED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS/
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND
INTO CENTRAL FL /JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA/. MODERATE MID
LEVEL WINDS /40 KTS/ PER THE 00Z TPA AND RECENT TPA VWP DATA SUPPORT
RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATING SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
50 KTS/ MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY TSTM
THAT HAS SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD TEND TO
MINIMIZE THE SVR THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
27898042 27688205 27298273 27048273 26858245 26668177
26828071 27598018
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