SWOD48
SPC AC 190859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE/OMEGA-BLOCK-TYPE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO LINGER
OVER THE WEST UPSTREAM OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5-6. WHILE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN -- WHICH COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS DAY 7 -- SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS APPARENT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS DAYS 4-6.
A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAY 4 ACROSS
THE PLAINS...THOUGH STRONG RIDGE -- AND THUS SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING --
SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SUPPRESSED WWD NEAR A HIGH PLAINS
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR
ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...A MULTIPLE DAY THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS EVIDENT. WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER E THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH AGREE THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOMEWHERE WITHIN A ROUGHLY
200 MILE-WIDE AREA CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPAND THE AREA SWD THIS FORECAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF
NM AND W TX.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2008
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