SWODY1
SPC AC 200054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH/TN VALLEYS...
SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KY
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY INTO WV BY 20/12Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0030Z FROM SERN IL EWD ALONG THE OH
RIVER INTO WRN WV...DRIVEN LARGELY BY STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF SWLY
LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.
00Z LZK SOUNDING IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT REPRESENTATIVE OF SOURCE REGION
OF AIR MASS BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED ALONG LLJ AXIS. INDEED...
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY CAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH CONSIDERABLE LIFT NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH
THEIR LFC. THIS OBSERVATION IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE IN WHICH ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED AND FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND N OF
SURFACE FRONT. THE MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT AND WARM EML WILL
RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES REMAINING
BELOW 500-700 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD BEARING
SHEAR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...SWRN KS...
AN ISOLATED STORM IS IN PROGRESS AS OF 0045Z JUST S OF GCK WITHIN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG /PER
00Z DDC SOUNDING/. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK REMAINS
QUITE WARM THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR...THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/20/2008
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