SWODY2
SPC AC 281724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
ACTIVE NRN STREAM RETREATING N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WEAK
RIDGING TO THE S. UPR LOW 500 NM SW OF KSFO WILL EJECT NEWD AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING NPAC TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH CNTRL CA
MONDAY AFTN AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BY 12Z TUE. AT THE
SFC...COLD ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE MOST ALL OF THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FL WHERE A STALLED FRONT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION.
..CNTRL/NRN CA...SRN ORE AND NRN GRT BASIN REGION...
MID/HIGH-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPR LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO GROW INTO THE ICING LAYER
TO YIELD LIGHTNING...PRIMARILY MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL CA AND
THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRA REGION.
..FL...
DEEP AND MOIST ELY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
NUMEROUS FAST MOVING SHOWER CLUSTERS TRAVERSING THE ERN...CNTRL AND
SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE MEAGER IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME AND TSTM PROSPECTS APPEAR
ON THE MARGIN OF A 10 PERCENT GENERAL TSTM OTLK. HOWEVER...SPORADIC
STRIKES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER CELLS THAT APPROACH THE
ECOAST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAN HEAT THE MOST.
.RACY.. 10/28/2007
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