SWODY2
SPC AC 180600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION
MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD SETTING UP
A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK AND
NORTH TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE MOVING INTO WRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX
BY EARLY EVENING.
ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE
IMPRESSIVE SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 3000 J/KG IN WCNTRL OK TO 4000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 45 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS
SUPERCELLS MATURE. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. SOME POTENTIAL
SHOULD ALSO EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS CONGEAL ACROSS
ECNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG A
DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR SE CO WHERE THE MODELS
SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE SCENARIO ABOVE. THE
GFS...NAM AND ETA-KF SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST. THE NAM INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT WITH THE GFS
FOCUSING MORE ON A SEVERE THREAT IN ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX ON A
WING OF WARM ADVECTION.
..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010
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