MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

ACUS11 KWNS 182006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182005
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-182100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...OK/TX PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182005Z - 182100Z

.UPDATE TO MCD 608...
17Z VORTEX TEAM SOUNDING NEAR CLOVIS EXHIBITED ONLY A VERY SMALL CAP
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 26 DEG C. PER LATEST
TEMPERATURES...CINH WILL ERODE VERY SOON. CU CONTINUES TO CONGEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER-BASED STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA/NCNTRL NM
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN ERNEST BETWEEN 21-22Z
OVER NERN NM ESE INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL.

REMAINDER OF DISCO THE SAME:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NRN NM
AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTN. CONCOMITANT
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING
LLVL SELYS ACROSS THE PNHDLS INTO THE NE PLAINS OF NM...
TRANSPORTING MID/UPR 50S DEW POINTS NWWD. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG AND WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
OF SFC HEATING...CINH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE FOR TSTM INITIATION.

FIRST HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE ALREADY FORMING INVOF THE RATON MESA IN
NE NM AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. SUBSEQUENT STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THE EVOLVING TCU FIELD ESE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NE NM INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE AFTN. WLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND NEARLY 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
MATURE ALONG THE NM/TX/OK BORDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR TWO BY MID-EVENING OVER THE TX PNHDL WITH
LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36900182 35970130 35140049 34340009 33960051 33830166
34000285 34410381 35230465 35910472 36910430 36900182

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