SWODY1
SPC AC 181619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO...NERN NM...SWRN
KS...WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. BAND OF STRONGER MID/UPR LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NRN AZ/NM WILL BRING FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NE NM
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IS
LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE CYCLONIC
FORMATION TO N OF PALMER DIVIDE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N/NNW IN 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM
OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD THRU ERN CO/WRN KS.
WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UPR CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH ACROSS
NM...CLEARING LEE OF CO ROCKIES WILL ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING.
WITH REGARDS TO THE MDT RISK...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE SWD THRU
SERN CO/NERN NM INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE VICINITY AND N OF MID LEVEL
WIND MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN NM.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ERN CO WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN BY MID
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SWD FAR ERN NM WHICH IS WHERE THE DRY LINE
SHOULD HAVE MIXED EWD TO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND
FAVORABLE VEERING HODOGRAPHS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WITHIN THE MDT AREA THAT WILL SHIFT EWD BY
EARLY EVENING INTO SWRN KS SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE.
FURTHER S WITH SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND TO THE S OF
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH AND SOMEWHAT RETARDED SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO OBSERVED MID LEVEL CLOUDS...STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DEVELOP LATER AS WELL. HOWEVER ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AS THEY PROPAGATE/MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING.
...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN MT...WITH PW
RISING TO AOA .75 INCHES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TSTMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG THE TROUGH AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST
ACROSS SE MT/. COUPLED WITH MODEST...DEEP...S TO SSELY FLOW AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS STG/SVR STMS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
...FL THIS AFTN...
SLIGHT COOLING/ASCENT WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 05/18/2010
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