SWODY2
SPC AC 161700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT EWD
THROUGH TX SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH NEAR 135 W OVER THE
NRN PACIFIC THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500
J/KG. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN HALF OF
CA AND AZ WITHIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
LOW. THOUGH DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
...SRN AND ERN TX...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX IN WAKE OF
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING SRN STREAM IMPULSE.
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO WEAK TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR
700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY BE TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
..DIAL.. 10/16/2010
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