SWODY1
SPC AC 291252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR GRT LKS UPR LOW WILL ELONGATE NE/SW AS IT CONTINUES E INTO SW
QUEBEC EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM RDG PERSISTS OVER THE SWRN
STATES AND COMPACT UPR LOW SETTLES SLOWLY SE ACROSS WA/ORE. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NC WILL ACCELERATE NEWD JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN. AT LWR LVLS...TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE
SE ACROSS THE MS AND OH VLYS...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES N ACROSS ERN
NY AND WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.
...CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL HI PLNS...
E/NELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS AND
ADJACENT HI PLNS AS SFC RDG CONTINUES TO BUILD S ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MEAN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 F OVER ERN CO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BENEATH 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE POSSIBLE. SCTD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO AND MOVE SSE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT LKS LOW. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR EVENT
WILL REMAIN LOW.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN U.S. THIS
AFTN. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT IN PA/NY. WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD MINIMIZE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SVR WX.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 08/29/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment