SWODY1
SPC AC 291934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PRIOR OUTLOOK APPEARS REASONABLE IN HIGHLIGHTING A LOW-PROBABILITY
HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES OVER ERN CO/NERN NM...WITH STORMS NOW
FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MOVING SEWD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS.
..GOSS.. 08/29/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009/
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS TODAY WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE PAC NW AND THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH...SURFACE WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL/STABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND EASTERN STATES.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE STALLED FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...NERN NM/CENTRAL-ERN CO...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE THE
DEEPER COLUMN FROM HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SRN CO
INTO NRN NM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 25-35 KT NWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM
CLUSTERS SHIFTING SSEWD OVER LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE CAPPING EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA.
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